PhD — Table of Contents

This is the full working Table of Contents for the PhD document.

Contents
1 Introduction 5
2 Contributions 10
  2.1 Technical contributions .................................................... 10
  2.2 Specific energy policy recommendations .................................... 10
3 Background 15
  3.1 History and transformational impacts of the electricity grid .............. 15
  3.2 Economics, commodity pricing and market liberalisation .................... 16
  3.3 Operation of the electricity system, energy losses and energy security .... 17
  3.4 Climate science, energy system decarbonisation, hydrogen and CCS .......... 17
  3.5 Democracy, digital communications, IoT, smart grids and circular economy .. 18
  3.6 COP and the carbon accounting framework ................................... 18
  3.7 Subsidies and schemes ...................................................... 18
  3.8 Mining, materials, robotics and global supply chains ...................... 19
  3.9 Technology characteristics of today’s generation mix ...................... 19
  3.10 Understanding the demand side: business and household demand ............. 19
  3.11 AI, industries of the future and infrastructure resilience ................ 20
  3.12 Weather models, forecasting, uncertainty and reliability .................. 20
  3.13 Management of a decentralised energy network .............................. 20
  3.14 Energy in the economy, geopolitics, cybersecurity and modern warfare ...... 20
  3.15 Net zero, buildings, GDP and societal inequality .......................... 21
  3.16 Current priorities, energy markets and innovative utilities ............... 21
  3.17 Higher education, democracy and open interdisciplinary research ........... 21
  3.18 Behavioural science, nudge theory and doughnut economics ................. 21
  3.19 International gas and electricity markets ................................ 22
  3.20 Automatic Market Makers (AMMs), Holarchies and Control Theory ............. 22
  3.21 Game theory, Shapley values and Nash Equilibrium .......................... 23
  3.22 Fairness and fairness in the energy sector ................................ 24
  3.23 Energy system digitalisation and governance ............................... 24
  3.24 Financial markets and funding the energy transition ....................... 25
  3.25 Today’s grid, the trilemma and fairness .................................... 25
  3.26 A proposed way forward: a return to first principles ...................... 25
4 Literature Review 26
5 Definition of Fairness 27
  5.1 System model (minimal notation) ........................................... 27
  5.2 Fairness axioms ............................................................ 27
  5.3 Consumer-side pricing & cost recovery ...................................... 28
    5.3.1 Essential block protection ............................................. 28
    5.3.2 Cost-recovery pots .................................................... 28
  5.4 Consumer-side fairness metrics (testable) ................................. 28
  5.5 Generator-side fair compensation (system value) ............................ 28
    5.5.1 Shapley-consistent attribution  ........................................ 29
    5.5.2 Compensation rule ..................................................... 29
    5.5.3 Generator fairness metrics ............................................ 29
  5.6 Tightness signal construction (for p_tight) ............................... 29
  5.7 Equity guardrails .......................................................... 30
  5.8 Empirical tests (before/after or A/B) ..................................... 30
6 Experiment Design 31
  6.1 Research Question ......................................................... 31
  6.2 Outcomes and Measurement .................................................. 31
  6.3 Treatments and Factors .................................................... 31
  6.4 Hypotheses ................................................................. 32
  6.5 Experimental Design (Paired Market Simulations) ........................... 32
  6.6 Inference and Decision Thresholds ......................................... 32
  6.7 Pre-Analysis Plan ......................................................... 33
7 Case Study 1: Design of a Cyber-Physical Health Nudge 34
8 System Design I: Market Design 35
9 System Design II: Energy Pricing 36
10 System Design III: Resource Allocation 37
11 System Design IV: Capacity Pricing 38
12 System Design V: The Digital Regulator Viewed as a Control System 39
13 Results including Comparison to Existing 40
14 Discussion 41
15 Conclusion and Future Work 42
16 References 43

Note: Page numbers are indicative from draft PDF generation.