EnleashedEnleashed

#3 — #3 — Fix economic management

Reduce, reuse, recycle—build a thriving, sustainable economy.

Real economy signalsLower wasteGrow what worksRisk-aware finance

Status quo

Debt heavy, wasteful spend, weak feedback loops; costs socialised while value capture is patchy.

Envisaged improvements & why

Pricing and budgeting that reflect externalities, prioritise prevention, and fund things that compound societal value.

How

Data-driven cost models, product-level allocations, dynamic budgeting using proxy-Shapley and real-time outcome scoring.

Users

Treasury, OBR, departments, local government, investors, public.

Components

Cost model engine, outcome trackers, budget allocator, reporting & public dashboards.

Scope

  • Introduce a System-Value Ledger (SVL) that tracks outcomes and externalities across programmes.
  • Reform budgeting with dynamic allocations linked to measurable outcomes and prevention payoffs.
  • Pilot circularity incentives (repair/remanufacture credits, landfill reduction targets).

Problem statement

Budgeting rewards spend, not outcomes. Environmental and social costs are off-balance-sheet. As a result, the economy over-invests in short-term throughput and under-invests in durable, circular value.

KPIs for success

  • Prevention ROI: £ saved downstream per £ of preventive spend (target > 3x in pilot areas).
  • Circularity: repair/remanufacture rate ↑ 25% YoY in pilot sectors.
  • Waste: municipal landfill tonnage ↓ 20% in pilot localities.
  • Budget agility: % of budget allocated via dynamic outcome-linked envelopes ≥ 30% by year 2.
  • Public dashboards: 100% of pilot programmes publish SVL metrics quarterly.

Team

  • SVL squad: product, data science, economist, policy lead, and engineering.
  • Budget allocator squad: treasury product owner + platform engineer + analyst.
  • Sector liaisons (manufacturing, waste, housing, health), legal & procurement.
  • Independent evaluation partner (university or NAO liaison).

Timeframes

  1. 0–8 weeks: define outcome taxonomy; instrument first two programmes; publish baselines.
  2. 2–6 months: launch SVL alpha; run circular-credit pilot in one region + one industry.
  3. 6–12 months: expand to 5 programmes; switch a % of budgets to dynamic envelopes.

Product details

  • System-Value Ledger: evented store of outcomes with provenance and audit trails.
  • Cost Model Engine: captures avoided cost & social value; supports proxy-Shapley allocation.
  • Budget Allocator: rules + simulation; reallocates quarterly based on performance.
  • Public Reporting: open dashboards with plain-English explanations.

Users

  • Treasury & departments (budget owners), local government (delivery), investors (co-funders), public & press (oversight).

UIs

  • Programme Console (targets, metrics, reallocations, scenario planning).
  • Treasury View (portfolio, risks, sensitivity, recommended moves).
  • Public Dashboard (spend → outcomes; circularity & prevention metrics).

API details

  • Ingest endpoints for programme outcomes and activity events; signed with mTLS/OAuth2.
  • Read APIs for metrics, allocations, and provenance; bulk export for auditors.
  • Event topics: programme.outcome_recorded, allocation.updated, pilot.credit_issued.

Solution details

  • Outcome taxonomy based on wellbeing + environmental accounts, mapped to programme trees.
  • Proxy-Shapley to fairly apportion multi-cause benefits; transparent assumptions.
  • Data minimisation and differential privacy where needed for public releases.

Delivery plan

  1. Choose two programmes with measurable downstream costs (e.g., damp/mould prevention; hospital readmission reduction).
  2. Instrument outcomes; publish baseline & dashboard; agree reallocation rules.
  3. Run quarterly cycles: measure → simulate → reallocate a small % → publish.
  4. Scale to circular-credit pilots with local authorities and manufacturers.

Stakeholders

  • Treasury, OBR, departments (BEIS successor, DHSC, DLUHC), local authorities, manufacturers & repair sector, NAO, ICO, civil society.

Components

  • System-Value Ledger; Cost Model Engine; Budget Allocator; Public Dashboards; Data connectors.

Funding mechanism

  • Seed via transformation pot + matched local pilots.
  • Sustain via gain-share: a small fraction of verified avoided costs funds the platform.
  • Issue time-boxed circular credits redeemable against tax for verified repair/remanufacture.